Advanced Sports Betting Theories
People all over the world love to bet on sports. Since you're reading this, you're probably part of that majority. While some do it ...
People all over the world love to bet on sports. Since you're reading this, you're probably part of that majority. While some do it just for recreation or to make watching a TV game more exciting, there are others who will always wager on their favorite team or player, period. However, there is an elite third group out there who bet sports with one and only one purpose in mind...to make money. Whichever group you fall into, sports wagering must be treated the same as any other financial investment. To be done properly (and profitably)
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Sports Betting 401 - History and Trends
Trend betting is when a sports bettor uses trends to handicap picks. In this method, a bettor would look for circumstances where the outcome of a game drastically favors one team. For instance, a few years back, betting in the NFL against a team that was playing their 3rd straight road game was a popular and winning trend. The lines makers now take this trend into account when creating the spread.
Some bettors and most touts rely heavily of this method for picking games. Trends appear to appeal to most bettors because they are historical facts that tell you to like one team or the other. Additionally, having a trend can take the work out of handicapping two specific teams strength and weaknesses. It can be used as a shortcut, and this is probably why it is so popular with touts.
The reality of it is that most trends can be countered with another trend that tells you to bet the exact opposite way. An example could look like this:
Dallas -3 @ Washington
Home team covers 10 of the last 11 times these teams met - favors Washington
Dallas cover 8 out of the last 9 times it was favored by 3 - favors Dallas
Washington is 7 of 9 ATS after a double digit loss - favors Washington
Washington is 2 of 14 ATS as an underdog playing a division rival at home - favors Dallas
These trends can go on and on with no apparent winner, but people trend to stop looking once they find a couple trends that favor the team that they want to bet. I'm sure that there are a few winning handicappers that have used trends to their benefit, but out of how many?
In conclusion, trends should be taken with a grain of salt. There may be a few trends that will win overtime, but finding them would be nearly impossible. It's much more reliable to do your own research to handicap a game while considering current factors than to rely of trends.
Related: Sports Betting 301: Sports Betting Tips and Strategies
Home Field Advantage
Sports betting spread and odds are adjusted for home field advantage. In football, the home team can get an extra three points in spread just for playing at home. Home teams are also favored in basketball, baseball, and just about every sport that has a home team.
Everyone knows that the principle behind this is that the home team is more comfortable playing in their own stadium with the support of their own fans. The edge is big in the NFL and could be even bigger in other sporting events, such as the World Cup.
The 2006 World Cup was played in Germany, this was a huge advantage for the German team that got much farther than anyone expected. While other teams had to leave their friends and family at home for weeks and live out of hotels, the German players were hours away from their homes and familiar with every city that they played in. Furthermore, all the locals spoke their language and every German was behind them. This kind of home field advantage can not be underrated, and Germany won their group, made it to the semi-finals, and finish third overall. There were long odds for them to get that far.
Germany's coach, Jurgen Klinsmann, said, "What this team achieved during the tournament is incredible. For the last seven or eight weeks every single day was emotionally charged." This emotional charge had to be easier to maintain playing in your home country in front of your own fans.
In most cases, home field advantage is already calculated in the price and spread. The Journal of Economics and Business ran an article summarizing research from the University of North Carolina, in which three professors studied "a bias in the pricing of the home field advantage". At the end of their study, they found, "little evidence of a mispricing of the home field advantage in either regular season or playoff games," in football, basketball and baseball.
Basically, the home field advantage does exist, but in most cases it is correctly priced into the odds. Therefore, the myth that betting only home teams can be profitable is false, but there are still opportunities where betting a team is profitable by recognizing circumstances similar to those experienced by Germany.
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